As I'm sure many of you have known, there have been a few changes in the rules for the Academy Awards this year the biggest being obviously the expansion from five to ten, Best Picture nominations. The second being the possibility that there will be no Best Original Song category every year, and the third being that the Honorary Oscar will no longer be apart of the general broadcast.
The motivation behind these changes...ratings. Pure, plain and simple. The ratings have dropped severely in the past few years for the Oscars because, one the show is too long for most, and two most people have never heard/seen most of the nominees. For example 90% of the people I know only saw one or two of last years best picture nominees, and 99.9% of my friends had never even heard of The Reader. Most of my friends didn't even watch the telecast for that reason, they had no idea what any of the films were. The expansion of the category is obviously the Academy's plan to have more room for different kinds of films like maybe a blockbuster or a comedy or two in there. That way more viewers will come and they won't receive 20,000 letters of complaint that The Dark Knight wasn't nominated. Personally I think that you SHOULD have more Best Picture nominations then any other category mainly because it is a much broader achievement then the others, I think that there should be at least 5 nominees with the potential for there to be 6 or 7 depending on the voters and how strong a year it was, I think that basically 3 or 4 of the nominees we are all just going to know have no shot at winning and are just there to give those films devoted followers a little ray of hope, and film ignorant america films they have heard of. Personally I am not happy about this decision but...I'm gonna withhold judgement until the nominees of this year are announced.
Now The Best Original Song category I am very happy about, because unlike things like editing, sound, makeup and such, not every film has a song, and if there aren't original songs good enough to merit a nomination the category should not exist for that year, also the live performances waste so much time that it will get the show more viewers and not annoy impatient people like myself. Its like "Oh here listen to the song so you can judge at home." And I;m like "But, are you showing the audience the amazing sound design of this film....no..."so I love this new change. Now on the third change...I am mixed about this because sometimes like in 2006, I really respect Ennio Morricone, but goddamn that segment went on way too long. Unless it is someone who I really really want to see honored usually I can do without seeing that segment, as long as they do broadcast that somewhere if there is a person who I want to see receive that Oscar, this change is fine with me as well.
Due to the Best Picture nominees change I now present my 8 months in advance predictions for the 10 Best Picture nominees of 2009 (keep in mind this far ahead of time...its anyones game and this is mainly very early guesstimation, the art of Oscar predicting does not come into play fully until the end of the year)
These are in the order I think that they have a chance of winning.
1) The Lovely Bones For it; An acclaimed book, with a fantastic filmmaking team behind it, a great cast, a film that is both heartbreaking and heartwarming at the same time, and it screams Oscar bait.
Against it;We have only seen a few stills from the film so we have no idea what it will be like, could be too melodramatic, the narrative style of the book may not translate well to the screen.
2) Nine For it; I tend to not care for musicals, and the trailer blew me away, thats a sign. Amazing cast and an arguably overdue director whom the Academy loves, did I mention that the trailer is AMAZING?!
Against it; Chicago won best picture, can Nine do it again? Remakes don't always do well with the Academy.
3) Invictus For it; A baity biopic with Academy favorite Clint Eastwood...need I say more?
Against it; Haven't seen a frame of it yet, could be just an actor's vehicle, and as we saw last year, there is a possibility that the Academy, like me, is sick of Eastwood.
4) Shutter Island For it; The script is phenomenal, and it is very different for Scorsese, something the Academy loves a la Munich. With 5 nominations it was a close call, but given the Academy's opening to darker more thrilleresque films, has a big shot now that its 10 nominations.
Against it; May be too dark, thrillerish and possibly surrealistic for the Academy.
5) Up For it; Due to the expansion to 10 I'm gonna go out on a limb here and call it now, this is a LOCK for a nomination. A great film that was unanimously praised, Wall-e and Ratatouille just missed the cut the last two years and with the expansion to ten, this one will break through.
Against it; The only thing that could possibly stop this film is that it has its own category.
6) Avatar For it; Steven Spielberg, Peter Jackson, Steven Soderbergh and George Lucas have all said its going to revolutionize film forever...thats enough for me. Early sceen tests were received with orgams, and Cameron describes the Oscar winning Titanic "small" compared to this film.
Against it; We don't know enough about the story/mood. Could be too fun, might just sweep the techs.
7) The Road For it; Pulitzer Prize winning novel, more baity and more critically acclaimed then the other film by this author that won Best Picture.
Against it; Many people(myself not included) did not like the trailer, being pushed back is never a good sign as The Soloist showed us.
8) The Hurt Locker For it; There's usually one Oscar type film that comes out in the first half of the year, this year it was this. Most believe it to be the best of the year so far and the first great Iraq war film.
Against it; Myself and a few others I know were not impressed with this film at all, Green Zone is the same type of film coming out later in the year which I managed to see and to me it blows this film out of the water...but I don't vote. Early in the year, could be forgotten about.
9) Precious For it; Strong early word, and it has the indie card to play, most seem to think it looks really good.
Against it; Looks awful in my opinion, could be super melodramatic crap. The Oprah factor could help or hurt no way to know.
10) Star Trek For it; If they honor any blockbuster like most assume they will now because of the change to ten films, it will be this film. I think this film was as good as most thought The Dark Knight was(I thought Dark Knight was vastly UNDERrated), I don't know a person who saw it (save bitter Trekkies) who didn't like it.
Against it; We don't know if they will now decide to honor blockbusters, they could just nominate 10 Oscar films, Avatar could blow it out of the water...
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